HIGHFIRE RISK PROJECT

RESOURCES FOR THE AFAC24 CONFERENCE IN SYDNEY

I submitted six things for the conference. I was offered a choice of any two to become posters. Here are the results of that:

Australian Hotspot Seasonality Analysis, 2023-2024.

You can browse and compare annual analyses going back to 2002. You can see how wrong the standard map of "Australia's Fire Seasons" is. How do we manage to do business using this?
Click the poster below to see it full size.

This is a poster in a series that I have done for AFAC for many years.

For the first time I was required to submit an abstract for it.

Offered as an OPTIONAL POSTER

See over two decades of analyses here.


Analysis of South-East Australia's Fire Regimes

It is incredibly important that we properly resolve what the actual fire regimes are, not just use artefacts of funding cycles for fire mamagement.
I have used two decades of satellite data to show variation is fire patterns across all of south-east Australia.

Submitted as a TALK

on a valuable insight into how fire occurs across our landscapes.

Offered as an OPTIONAL POSTER

I presented a poster on this to the 7th International Fire Behaviour and Fuels Conference in Canberra: see it here.

Using satellites to monitor national fire pattern changes.

There is something of a revolution underway in satellite monitoring of fires, and it will accelerate rapidly in the near future. We must keep on top of this - what does the end-user need? (That's you.)

Submitted as a one-day WORKSHOP.

Offered as an OPTIONAL POSTER

Especially with the switch from MODIS to VIIRS data we need to be careful in how we manage the transition. There are pitfalls in linking the two-decade MODIS climatology to new VIIRS datafeeds.

Predicting Blow-Up Fire Events

For the first time, globally, a verified ability to predict the worst types of wildfire, based on both operational and scientific perspectives. And you might just need it this summer.

Submitted as a TALK

on a successful new predictive tool for Blow-Up Fire Events.

Offered as an OPTIONAL POSTER

I am getting the results of a successful validation trial over the 23-24 summer published.

What the scary stuff is called

Under climate change, your safety on the fire ground may depend on your knowledge of Vorticity-driven Lateral Spread or Isentropic Drawdown. What? You don't know them? Oops.
An early version was shown as a poster at the recent IAWF Conference in Canberra.

Submitted as a TALK

on a problem plaguing the management of the worst types of wildfires - a lack of common, agreed terminology.

Offered as an OPTIONAL POSTER

The need for a balanced argument

Anyone trying to understand the threats from climate change must navigate the cacophony of voices. "Who do I listen to?" Unfortunately the answer might not be "your fire service".

Submitted as a TALK

on a global problem.

Offered as an OPTIONAL POSTER

I have submitted this for publication.
So, three talks, one workshop, one recurrent poster, and one poster. I didn't expect to get all of this accepted.
What I got was the offer to pick "any two to become posters". There was no consideration of the relative merits of any of my material. Unlike all previous conferences there was no seperate consideration for Professional Development Program workshops - just submit an abstract.
As a result, I was forced to withdraw my abstracts, and my intended registration to attend AFAC24.
As the likely person who has presented at the most such conferences (starting 1989 [for the pre-AFAC AARFA]), at least 39 posters, four workshops, numerous talks), I am deeply disappointed by this. The conferences had long proven themselves to be a critically important means of getting new science lessons out to those in uniform. This is no longer the case.
Perhaps next year the conference theme might be "Adapting to Climate Change". I would be interested in that! Until the time arrives when AFAC Conferences accept the criticality of that I will seek alternate avenues for research dissemination on that topic to fire and emergency services.

If you agree with me tell your management.

Rick